Don’t Let the US Mega-Caps Obscure Profits Across the Market

Earnings expectations for the Magnificent Seven (or Mag Seven) mega-caps remain optimistic, but profits may face pressure as spending rises. Equity investors should carefully evaluate each of the mega-caps while searching across other sectors for solid sources of profitable growth.

Building artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities is capital intensive. Many of the mega-caps have been investing heavily to ensure they stay ahead of the AI curve. Their performance patterns have diverged, as investors have rewarded companies that are spending more in anticipation that capital expenditure will pave the road to future profits. 

Mag Seven Cash Flows Are Stagnating

But big spending might be a double-edged sword. Despite a continued rise in net income, free cash flows among the Mag Seven have stagnated because of the significant capex on AI infrastructure (Display). We believe the return on investment from this spending will be a critical factor in determining the future performance of these stocks. And the mega-caps are not a monolith; each has a different business model and a different outlook. So investors should keep a close eye on how each of these companies leverages its AI investments to drive future growth.

As we see it, Mag Seven members should be evaluated individually and included in an allocation at appropriate weights, provided the company aligns with the portfolio’s investment philosophy.

Finding Growth Across the Market

It’s also essential to look beyond the mega-caps for profitable opportunities. Median earnings growth remains positive across most US sectors—from financials to industrials—indicating a wealth of potential investments outside the usual suspects. Diversifying portfolios by including businesses from various sectors can provide a broader foundation for long-term growth, in our view.

It’s true that not owning shares in all the Mag Seven companies might leave a portfolio trailing behind the benchmark in the short term, as long as their dominance persists. However, we believe that a more prudent approach involves carefully balancing risk and selectively tapping into the potential of these US titans to mitigate the risks associated with overreliance on a small group of giant stocks.

The Magnificent Seven will continue to dominate headlines, but investors shouldn’t let them obscure the broader market. By evaluating opportunities across the market, investors can discover diversified sources of profit potential to fuel consistent growth over time.