How Does Global “Friend-Shoring” Affect Chinese Manufacturers?

2024年3月25日
2 min read
China’s Role in Global Supply Chains Is Shifting
Investing in munis 3 months before a first rate cut netted a 10.5% 12-month forward return, compared to 6.0% 3 months after.

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.
*Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average
Left display as of August 31, 2023; right display as of December 31, 2023
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC Data, Emerging Advisors Group, General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, US Census Bureau and AllianceBernstein (AB)

Geopolitical tensions in recent years have prompted companies to reconfigure their supply chains, with US firms increasingly moving production outside of China. Yet even as countries such as Mexico and Vietnam become more prominent in global manufacturing, Chinese companies remain deeply involved. 

Deglobalization is changing the way companies in diverse industries manufacture products. Many are moving manufacturing closer to home or to regions that are less likely to become entangled in disruptive geopolitical conflicts.

Trade Winds Flow to Mexico and Vietnam… 

As a result, US imports from China have declined since 2018 to about 15% of the total (Display). However, over the same period, China’s exports to the rest of the world have increased. 

Mexico and Vietnam have been big beneficiaries of changes to supply chains. But that doesn’t mean China has been removed from the picture. In fact, Chinese exports to Vietnam have jumped by 72% since 2018, while US imports from Vietnam have risen by a similar proportion. Chinese exports to Mexico have surged by 155% over the same five-year period. Even as Mexico and Vietnam enjoy GDP benefits from new sources of trade, Chinese companies are still embedded in the relocated supply chains.

…but Chinese Companies Remain in the Game 

The trade data suggest that Chinese manufacturers have quickly adapted to a new reality by setting up shop in favored manufacturing destinations. Many are rerouting a large portion of their shipments and/or moving production sites to other countries.

These complex trade patterns matter for Chinese companies—and investors. While deglobalization and trade risks may have deterred some equity investors from China, the actual impact on individual companies is far more nuanced. 

Diversifying supply chains away from China is not always easy to do. Global manufacturers have often found that Chinese companies with essential products for complex production processes are not easily replaced. As US elections draw near, concerns about trade could raise new questions for Chinese companies. Despite the pressures, we believe selective equity investors can find resilient companies in China, with business models that remain integral to global trade and create solid cash flows to support long-term return potential.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.

Investment involves risk. The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer of solicitation for the purchase or sale of, any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein or its affiliates. This presentation is issued by AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited (聯博香港有限公司) and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.


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